Ripple (XRP) is consolidating before a decisive big move expected in the near future. Recent history for XRP/USD shows that similar consolidation has seen the price plunge hard to lower levels. One might disagree that a consolidation could equally result in a bullish breakout instead of a bearish one. That might be true if we consider a sideways consolidation without taking the wicks into account. However, if we do take candle wicks into account, we cans see that the price has attempted to break out but it failed. If we compare both of these fractals, we will see that the first candle for both of these fractals looks incredibly similar. In late August when the price attempted to resume its uptrend, it retraced strongly. The same happened in mid October when the price attempted to resume uptrend.
Just before the breakout during late August, we saw the 10 EMA break below the 21 EMA. The same appears to be happening this time. Interestingly enough, most technical indicators support such a move. The RSI Stochastic indicator on the XRP/USD 4H chart shows that the price has topped out short term and is ready for a move down. Wave trend analysis points to the same conclusion. If the price were to nosedive from current levels, it would be expected to settle above $0.30. The possibility and probability of a fall from current level is very real. There is still a slight chance that Ripple (XRP) may breakout from here to the upside. However, any rally in consequence of such a breakout would not be sustainable.
Ripple (XRP) has made a lot of independent moves over the past few weeks. It is thus reasonable to expect that Ripple (XRP) may correct short term even if the rest of the market is rising. This would not be extraordinary as we have seen this happen many a time in the past. Besides, the volume is so low that a few big orders on any of the big exchanges might easily push the price down. Professional investors do not trade with sentiment nor do they get attached emotionally to an asset. If they believe there is room for a short term retracements, then we can expect a short term pullback. A short term retracement appears even more likely when you consider that Ripple (XRP) is about to begin a new rally. A lot of big investors would want to shake out any final weak hands so they can lowball.
The price might retrace short term, but this is going to look completely insignificant in the grand scheme of things. Those who took this opportunity to accumulate would come out as winners whereas those who panic sold would regret it later. Those who have been in this market for long know that it is a lot easier to live with a 20% short term loss than it is to miss out on a 20% gain long term. The entire market is bracing for a trend reversal. The only winners in this game are those who took every opportunity to accumulate at lower prices for the long term. The XRP/USD weekly chart clearly shows that the price has just completed a large bullish gartley pattern that spans over a period of two years. If the market is to trade in a similar manner, we should expect to see the formation of another bullish gartley pattern which would see the price rising well above its previous all time high.
