Litecoin (LTC) has lost its bullish momentum once gain as the price has now retraced back below the 10 Week EMA. The longer the price remains below the 10 Week EMA, the higher the probability that it may eventually break below its support. Currently, we do not see any strong probability of that happening in the near future. However, if the price fails to break the 10EMA resistance, then that will be the inevitable consequence. Even though Bitcoin (BTC) and some large cap coins managed to break through their downtrend resistances before, Litecoin (LTC) is still struggling to break past its 10 Week EMA. In fact, LTC/USD has continuously been rejected by the 10 Week EMA since the month of May.
Litecoin (LTC) has seen a constant decline in volume. The price has bottomed out for now and has consolidated above a strong support for more than ten weeks now. However, as long as Bitcoin (BTC) remains undecided, Litecoin (LTC) is going nowhere. In this mode of uncertainty, if Litecoin (LTC) breaks below $50, that would be completely disastrous. The price of Litecoin (LTC) cannot afford to fall below $50 in any case. If it breaks and closes below $50, there is a very high probability that Litecoin (LTC) will see another correction for the next eight months or so. RSI for the above chart looks favorable for a short run up but it is unlikely that the price will break the downtrend during this run up.
While Litecoin (LTC) may have lost its bullish momentum, it is pertinent to note that the lower it falls, the easier it gets for LTC/USD to break the downtrend resistance. Litecoin (LTC) has already reached a decision point and will have to make a decisive move before December. Cryptocurrency seasonality suggests that October to December has been the most bullish periods in the past. In the past few days, we have already seen many cryptocurrencies signal that. However, the market was soon to bleed red again and is once again shrouded by uncertainty. Considering that a lot of investors are looking to hedge against a stock market crash points to a bright long term future for cryptocurrencies. Litecoin (LTC) is a direct beneficiary in this case as institutions cannot afford to invest in high risk coins.
Litecoin (LTC) is expected to climb to new highs during its next bullish cycle. However, there have been debates over Litecoin (LTC)’s value proposition which does seem to have hurt investor sentiment for now. As the above weekly chart for LTC/BTC shows, Litecoin (LTC) fell back to the trend line despite breaking out of the falling wedge successfully. Not only did it fall back to the trend line, it has been repeatedly testing it. At this point, Litecoin (LTC) is very vulnerable as long as it stays below the 10 Week EMA. One strong swing from Bitcoin (BTC) could push Litecoin (LTC) into another bear trend.
Litecoin (LTC) is rapidly losing its position as being the cheapest easily accessible coin and the one with the highest growth potential. These were the main reasons Litecoin (LTC) grew exponentially. Some would argue that Litecoin (LTC) is currently one of the few spendable cryptocurrencies online, but with solutions like Lightning Network around the corner, it would not take long for Bitcoin (BTC) to address this issue. Short term, Litecoin (LTC) may still benefit from a growing cryptocurrency market just like most cryptocurrencies, but debates over its value propositions are ultimately going to be taken more seriously.
