Tom Lee, a well-known bitcoin bull and the co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, has recently cut his year-end bitcoin price prediction to $15,000. Lee had notably been maintaining a $25,000 by year-end price prediction throughout the bearish trend.
According to CNBC, Lee revealed his price prediction is based on a key driver, which is bitcoin’s “break-even” point. Fundstrat’s data science team reportedly found that, using Bitmain’s S9 mining machine, the point is at $7,000, down from a previous estimate of $8,000.
Lee’s firm, taking the $7,000 figure, got to $15,000 by calculating that bitcoin’s “fair value” would be roughly 2.2 times its break-even price. The Wall Street analyst is notably betting on a recovery, as in a note sent to clients he claimed that in bitcoin’s previous bear market, between 2013 and 2015, the cryptocurrency “never sustained a move below breakeven.”
The note read:
While bitcoin broke below that psychologically important $6,000, this has lead to a renewed wave of pessimism. But we believe the negative swing in sentiment is much worse than the fundamental implications.
According to Lee, bitcoin’s recent slump, that saw it go under the $6,000 mark and subsequently hit a new yearly low below $5,500, was caused by “crypto-specific” events, which include the recent Bitcoin Cash hard fork.
As CryptoGlobe covered, the BCH hard fork saw two opposing sides – Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV – split the chain into two. The event was marked by threats of a potential 51% from SV directed at ABC, which never materialized as ABC currently has more hashrate.
Per the Wall Street analyst, institutional involvement in the cryptocurrency space may still help prices grow by the end of the year. The launch of the Intercontinental Exchange’s (ICE) crypto venture Bakkt, and Fidelity entering the market through crypto custodian and brokerage solutions, are to Lee part of a “broader creation of infrastructure necessary for institutional involvement.”
Notably, bitcoin remained relatively stable through much of October, so much so that its 30-day volatility index hit lows it hadn’t seen since December of 2016. Lee, as CryptoGlobe covered, claimed to be “pleasantly surprised” by the cryptocurrency’s low volatility.
The cryptocurrency was notably trading around the $6,400 mark before its price dropped well over 12% on Wednesday, November 14. At press time, according to CryptoCompare data, BTC is trading at $5,570 after falling 0.8% in the last 24-hour period.
While Tom Lee’s $15,000 price prediction may seem overly bullish, it’s worth pointing out the analyst has in the past used historical evidence to argue ‘hodling’ makes sense. This, as his research found BTC investors saw a full year’s gains in only nine days.