Fundstrat’s head of research Thomas Lee has taken to Twitter to outline the 14 reasons why he believes the bear market in crypto is over.
As entry number 14 on the list, Lee retweeted bullish stats posted by BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes and claimed: “Confirmed – Crypto winter over.”
The regular Bitcoin analyst said that high liquidity exchanges like BitMEX “have insights into the positioning and behavior of crypto investors” and that the firm’s “large trading share + popularity with leveraged traders” means that the CEO may not be lying when he says that “the bull market is real”.
Another 13 reasons why
After witnessing what he described as a “disturbing pullback to $6,200”, Lee added that the return to $8,000 was confirmation that the newly formed up-trend is intact.
Some of his reasons have more weight than others, but he starts with a look back to November 2018 and the Bitcoin Cash hash war that many speculated caused the final capitulation down to $3,200. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust then saw its NAV premium fall to 5% – its lowest level since 2017 – which Lee believes also implies that the capitulation has already occurred. The funds premium has since surged to 41% following the resurgence of the bull market for digitally scarce assets.
Other reasons include the fact that daily on-chain transactions have turned positive for the first time since January 2018 and that Bitcoin closed above the 200-day moving average for the first time in 13 months in early April this year.
Lee also mentioned that over-the-counter volumes have also started surging, with multiple brokers reporting that new client activity is up 60-70% compared with four months ago. He also speculates that the escalation of US President Donald Trump’s trade war with China has spurred safe haven investors to load up on Bitcoin as a safer store of value.
Add to this the fact that Bitcoin experienced a ‘golden cross’ in late April and the mostly subdued reaction to negative news such as the Tether imbroglio and the Binance hack, this all suggests to Lee that major confidence in the crypto markets is finally back.