In a joint communiqué, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors have said that “technological innovations, including those underlying crypto-assets, can deliver significant benefits to the financial system and the broader economy.” This statement suggests that central banks are warming up to the new technology. However, they have also warned regulatory authorities to monitor risks in crypto assets “related to consumer and investor protection, anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.”
With Facebook likely to announce the details of its crypto project in a few days, we believe that the downside is limited in the short term. However, if the project disappoints, we might see a decent sized correction in cryptocurrencies that can be used as a buying opportunity. If the details positively surprise markets, we might see a spike in most major cryptocurrencies that can be used to lighten up positions, because we do not expect a repeat of 2017. If the project only meets expectations, even then we might see a correction play out.
Which cryptocurrencies look good for a short-term trade? Let us find out.
The bulls failed to push Bitcoin (BTC) above the 20-day EMA on June 7 and 8. Currently, the price has again bounced off the neckline of the head and shoulders (H&S) pattern and is trying to scale the 20-day EMA. This is a positive sign.
The 20-day EMA is flat and the RSI is just above the center. This points to a consolidation in the short term. The range might be between $7,413.46 and $9,000. If the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, a rally to $9,000 is probable.
However, if the BTC/USD pair reverses direction from the overhead resistance and plummets below the neckline, it will complete a head and shoulders pattern that has a target objective of $5,371.12. It is unlikely that the pair will dive to such a low level. There are strong supports at the 50-day SMA and below it at $5,900. We expect buying to emerge at these support levels. Currently, we do not find any reliable buy setups.
Ethereum (ETH) is range bound. It has currently dropped to the bottom of the $225.39–$280 range. The bulls are attempting to bounce off $225.39. If successful, the price will try to move up to the top of the range at $280 and the consolidation might extend for a few more days.
The 20-day EMA is flat and the RSI is close to the center. This suggests a balance between the bears and the bulls. If the ETH/USD pair breaks down of the range and the 50-day SMA, a fall to $167.20 is possible.
Short-term traders can wait for the pair to break out and sustain above the 20-day EMA for about 4 hours before buying with a stop loss of $220. The target is to book profits near the top of the range. Trading inside the range can be volatile, therefore, keep the position size only about 30% of usual.
Ripple (XRP) broke down of the symmetrical triangle on June 9. A breakdown of this pattern has a target objective of $0.26741. However, the bulls are currently attempting to push the price back into the triangle. If successful, the breakdown will be considered a bear trap.
If the price fails to scale back into the triangle, it might turn around and drop to the next critical support of $0.35660. We anticipate strong buying at this level but if this support also cracks, a decline to $0.27795 will be in the cards.
Our bearish view will be invalidated if the XRP/USD pair rises and sustains above the trendline of the symmetrical triangle. This will prolong the stay inside the triangle. The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI close to the midpoint suggests a consolidation.
The trend will turn positive on a breakout and close (UTC time) above the triangle. For now, the traders can maintain the stop loss on the long position at $0.35. We will raise the stop loss at the first available opportunity.
Litecoin (LTC) is in an uptrend. The price is attempting to break out of the resistance line of the ascending channel. A breakout can carry the price towards the pattern target of $158.91. If this level is crossed, the next level to watch is $184.7940.
If the bulls fail to push the price above the channel, the LTC/USD pair might continue to move up inside the channel. The momentum will weaken on a breakdown of the 20-day EMA and the trend will turn bearish if the price plunges below the critical support of $91.
Traders can watch the price action near the resistance line of the channel closely. If the pair struggles to break out of it, the stops can be tightened further. For now, we suggest trailing the stops on remaining long positions to $98.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is in a weak uptrend. The 20-day EMA is gradually sloping down and the RSI is close to the center. This suggests that bears are trying to gain an upper hand. A breakdown of the 50-day SMA and the support line of the channel will indicate a trend change.
On the other hand, if the BCH/USD pair rises above the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again try to push it back towards the resistance line of the channel. A breakout of the channel will propel the pair to $480. Though positive, we do not find a reliable buy setup, hence, we are not proposing a trade in it.
EOS has been trading inside the ascending channel, which suggests that the trend is up. However, the short-term trend has weakened as the price has stayed below the 20-day EMA for the past 6 days and the RSI has also fallen below 50. The medium-term trend, nevertheless, remains bullish as the 50-day SMA is still sloping up.
If the EOS/USD pair bounces off the 50-day SMA and ascends the overhead resistance of $6.8299, it will indicate strength. The next stop is the resistance line of the channel and above it $8.6503. Therefore, we retain the buy recommendation given in the previous analysis.
Our bullish view will be negated if the pair fails to hold the 50-day SMA and the support line of the ascending channel. That can result in a drop to $4.4930.
Binance Coin (BNB) has been in a strong uptrend. The current pullback has found support just below the 20-day EMA. This shows that the bulls are buying on dips. A breakout of the downtrend line is likely to resume the uptrend and propel the price to lifetime highs.
Short-term traders can buy if the price sustains above $33 for four hours. The stop loss can be kept at $28. Please keep the position size about 50% of usual. If the momentum picks up, the cryptocurrency can even extend the rally to $46.1645899. However, as this is a short-term trade, traders should keep trailing the stops higher to reduce the risk.
On the other hand, if the BNB/USD pair fails to sustain above the downtrend line, it can form a range. The support of the range might be closer to $28, but we still do not know the resistance. The trend will turn negative if the pair plunges and sustains below the 50-day SMA.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) is presently in a pullback in an uptrend. The bulls are trying to defend 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally. If successful, the cryptocurrency might remain range bound between $175 and $240 for the next few days. A consolidation near the highs is a positive sign. This shows that the bulls are in no hurry to book profits even after a vertical rally.
The uptrend will resume on a breakout to new highs. Such a move can carry the BSV/USD pair $307.789 and above it to $340.248.
However, if the bears sink the pair below $175, it can decline to $152.015, which is the 50% retracement level of the recent rally. A breakdown of this support will signal a change in trend. We do not find a reliable buy setup so we do not suggest a trade in it.
Stellar (XLM) is struggling to sustain the bounce from the strong support of $0.11507853. This shows a lack of demand at higher levels. If the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the cryptocurrency might trade inside the $0.11507853–$0.14861760 range for a few days.
The XLM/USD pair will complete an inverse head and shoulders pattern on a breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $0.14861760 that has a minimum target objective of $0.22466773. Therefore, we might suggest long positions if the pair sustains the breakout. But if the bears sink the cryptocurrency below $0.11507853, it can correct to $0.08558676.
Cardano (ADA) is currently range bound between the 50-day SMA and $0.10. Both the moving averages are flat and the RSI is at the midpoint. This suggests a balance between buyers and sellers.
The bulls have been attempting to keep the price above the 50-day SMA for the past few days. Though the support has held, the cryptocurrency has failed to sustain the bounce. This shows a lack of demand at higher levels.
If the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the ADA/USD pair might move up to $0.10. A breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $0.10 will complete a rounding bottom formation that has a target objective of $0.22466773. We might suggest long positions after the price sustains above $0.10. On the contrary, if the support at the 50-day SMA gives way, the digital currency can dip to $0.057898.