The Chinese Ministry of Industry has recently released rankings for 14 of its cryptocurrency projects. In it, EOS topped the list, followed by TRON and Ethereum.
These positive news come at a very interesting time for cryptocurrencies. Ethereum, in particular, is readying for the release of Ethereum 2.0, a proposed hard fork. In a recent poll, however, when the co-founder asked the question of “would it ever be appropriate to conduct a hard fork to revert chain activity after a serious hack”, the response was a resounding “No”, with 63% of voters disagreeing with a hard fork under any circumstances.
Ethereum experienced a hard fork in 2016 after a DAO hack, which caused it to split into two chains, giving birth to Ethereum Classic (ETC).
Both ETC and ETH, however, have been steadily increasing in 2019.
For the future, some interesting predictions were given by William Mougayar (@wmougayar), a well-known author and investor.
Since ETH, ETC, and EOS have recently made headlines, let’s look at the predictions for all three and decide how likely they are to be validated.
Looking at the Ethereum chart, an increase of roughly 450% from the current price would be required for a target of $1000 to be hit.
This movement would be similar to that of September-January 2017 when the price increased from $250 to $1400.
However, that upward move transpired over 112 days, while there are only 59 days left until January 1st.
Therefore, an increase at around twice the pace of that in 2017 would have to occur for the prediction to be validated.
A broad outline of the price movement would be that the current 2019 movement was the first wave of a five-wave Elliott formation.
The second wave ended with the $153 low on September 24 and the third wave began afterward. This, however, means that the third wave should be about two times quicker than the first one, moving above the $800 resistance area without trouble.
In my opinion, a more natural movement would be for the third wave to transpire at a slower rate, thus reaching the target sometime after the new year.
A closer look at the price movement suggests that this upward move will eventually occur.
There is bullish divergence developing in both the RSI and MACD.
Also, the price created a double bottom near $160, which is a bullish reversal pattern.
For the prediction of $50 to be hit an increase of roughly 940% in 59 days would be required.
Looking at the previous price movement, one such increase occurred between March/May 2017, when the price went from $1.8 to $23 in a span of 66 days.
The price is currently approaching the end of a descending wedge, combined with a bullish divergence in both the RSI and the MACD.
Therefore, while a breakout is likely, the $50 target seems overly optimistic. Additionally, it would represent an all-time high, slightly higher than the current one of $47, reached on January 14, 2018.
For the prediction of $7 to be hit, an increase of 110% would be required. Unlike the previous two coins, this would only represent a retracement relative to the June high, which in the case of EOS was $8.55.
Also, the $7 target falls right at a previous resistance area, the 0.786 fib level of the entire drop.
Looking closer at the price movement, there is a bullish divergence developing in the RSI & MACD.
If it is sufficient in causing the price to break out above the descending resistance line, the $7 prediction is likely to be validated.
Ranking the predictions on how likely they are to be hit, EOS is first, followed by ETC and ETH. While based solely on the current price movement, neither ETH nor ETC seem to be likely to validate the predictions. However, in the case of ETC, we have precedent on a rapid movement that would support the prediction, while on the case of ETH we do not.
Author: Valdrin Tahiri