According to data collected by Cindicator, a market intelligence firm that ran an ICO in 2017, at least 62% of analysts polled believe that the upcoming Brexit will have a positive impact on the market for digital assets and cryptocurrencies. 74% of all surveyed parties are considering cryptocurrencies as an addition to their portfolio.
Most analysts also believe that the current deadline for Brexit will pass, but will be extended. According to Cindicator’s Hybrid Intelligence, there’s just a 19.1% chance that the deadline of March 29th. At 22.5%, there’s a slightly higher chance that Britain will exit the EU without an agreement in place. But the most likely scenario, with an 82.75% probability, is that the deadline will merely get an extension.
Readers may be aware that British lawmakers are currently surprised by Prime Minister Theresa May’s essential re-submission of an agreement they had already rejected. The second failure of her proposal led to her resignation. The whole situation has got many in the British media and political circles reconsidering the entire notion.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS?
There is a slight chance that the British government will just override the will of the people and remain a member of the EU. Most analysts think such an effort would fail to get the requisite support from members of parliament.
The economic impacts of Brexit have already been felt for years. Bank of England estimates that nearly 800 million pounds per week have been shed from the economy every week since the decision passed in 2016. During the same period, the British pound (GBP) has lost 5% against the dollar and 10% against the Euro.
It’s hard to tell whether the same impact would have been had anyway, as the pound constantly fluctuates against other currencies. However, a sustained loss in this range must have some reason behind it, and many respected economists believe the Brexit decision is the primary factor.
IS LONDON LOSING ITS STATUS AS FINANCIAL HUB?
According to Cindicator, at least 275 finance companies have exited London, while many other firms are rearranging their European operations in preparation for an independent Britain. London remains one of the biggest financial hubs of the world, but its status could change if access to nearby European markets is affected by Brexit.
Brexit is having a positive impact on Germany and Ireland, however. Many hedge funds have moved to Dublin, while banks are leaving for Frankfurt.
For the same reason that Bitcoin thrives in times of economic turmoil, a hard Brexit without an agreement would likely have a positive impact on the value of cryptocurrencies. Access to international markets may be more difficult to come by spending the GBP, and there may be more friction in so doing. As a result, people may choose cryptos both as a hedge against declining GBP value and for its usefulness in cross-border transactions.
Notably, nearly 20% of analysts polled think Brexit will have no real impact on cryptocurrencies at all. A recent poll of British citizens found that trust in cryptocurrencies is low, while interest is relatively high. This may change if government policy has a severe negative impact on the financial lives of Britons.
BRITISH CRYPTO REGULATIONS: FRIENDLIER OR DELAYED POST-BREXIT?
Perhaps the most exciting result of the survey is the belief that post-Brexit Britian is likely to have frendlier crypto regulations. Competing with nearby France for blockchain businesses may become a new past-time. However, up to 44% of forecasters polled disagree with this notion. They believe it could have a somewhat negative impact, as the report says:
Almost 44% of analysts believe Brexit would not affect crypto regulation in the UK.Under a no deal scenario, withdrawing from the EU would lead to a repeal of the ECA. This would effectively remove 17,105 legal instruments across many areas of law, thus creating serious complications for the UK legislative system . After Brexit, the government3would then need to focus directly on legal processes associated with traditional political, economic and financial issues. As a result, some forecasters believe that regulatory development in innovative technology, such as cryptocurrency and blockchain, could be effectively delayed for the next 2–5 years.
Leaving the Eurozone is anything but a simple process, and the experience of Britain is likely to have a discouraging effect on any others who might have considered as much. The problems may far outweigh the benefits, to say the least.
Author: P. H. Madore